CERAWeek is energy’s Davos—ministers, majors, financiers and an armada of consultants swarming downtown Houston. In 2025 the agenda finally clicked: how to add terawatts of capacity fast enough for AI/data centres without blowing up energy security or emissions targets. Last year was narrative. This year was steel, transformers and rights-of-way.
The three elephants in the ballroom
1) AI eats power.
Hyperscalers spent the week speed-dating utilities for multi-gigawatt pipelines. The constraints aren’t PPAs; they’re interconnection queues, long-lead transformers, and permits for firming capacity so 24/7 claims survive scrutiny. Nuclear slid back into polite conversation—not as ideology, but as baseload scaffolding for “clean firm” portfolios that have to clear audits as well as press releases.
2) LNG’s steady drumbeat.
With geopolitics still messy, LNG kept its crown as the flex fuel smoothing wind/solar lulls and coal exits. The subtext moved from PR to finance: methane management and Scope 1–3 disclosure are now credit questions. Projects that win show credible abatement and market-aligned offtake, not just geography and steel.
3) CCUS without fairy dust.
The mood shifted from moonshots to brownfield retrofits, CO₂ pipeline corridors, and industrial clusters where capture + utilization actually pencil. Tax credits help, but capex discipline rules—with investors asking for throughput, uptime and signed hosts before they ink term sheets.
The grid build-out obsession
Transmission is the choke point. Panels wrestled with permitting reform, cost allocation, and reconductoring with advanced conductors to squeeze more out of existing corridors while greenfield lines crawl. On the distribution edge, utilities swapped notes on non-wires alternatives and DER orchestration to shave peaks now, not in 2030. Translation: the cheapest capacity this decade might be smarter wires, not new wires.
What actually shipped (or will)
- Firm-clean PPAs: Contracts that bundle wind/solar with batteries and dispatchables to guarantee hourly delivery for AI-heavy loads.
- Gas peakers with CCS-readiness: Not always capturing on day one, but pre-engineered for retrofit as policy and hub infrastructure catch up.
- Grid-scale batteries: 4–8 hour durations are landing real offtakes; LFP dominates today while flow sniffs niche wins where long life and deep cycling matter.
Founder & operator notes
- Build for interconnection reality. Site where queues are shorter, design for grid-forming inverters, and partner early with the wires company.
- Measure methane if you touch gas. Satellites, aerial, continuous monitors—if you can’t measure, lenders assume the worst.
- Cluster or bust for CCUS/H₂. Design around industrial clusters and CO₂ corridors where offtake and transport are hard-wired; lone-wolf projects are tourist traps.
The geopolitics layer
Energy security is back in bold on board slides. Sanctions, shipping risk, and Global South demand are steering capital as much as ESG scorecards. The smartest players hedged across fuels, routes, and politics—and treated disclosure as table stakes, not optional.
Dates & place: March 10–14, 2025 • Houston.
