NATO wrapped a high-stakes summit in The Hague with a headline commitment: move allies toward spending 5% of GDP on defence, reframing procurement pace and industrial policy across Europe. It capped days of tense diplomacy over Russia’s war economy, Iran’s risk calculus, and the alliance’s cyber posture. Protests outside underscored the political pain of guns-vs-butter budgeting.
What’s materially different after The Hague
- The 5% signal
While timelines and enforcement remain fluid, the signal is clear: Europe intends to bulk up. Expect accelerated air defence buys, artillery resupply, and munitions stockpiles—with supply chains under scrutiny. - Ukraine stays front-and-center
Zelenskyy pressed for tighter sanctions on component flows to Russia and warned of spillover risks to NATO members—clarifying why 5% isn’t just politics but insurance. (Live coverage underscored Ukraine’s centrality and debate over Article 5 optics.) - Cyber as a real war domain
Rail disruptions in the Netherlands around the summit became a teachable moment; allied statements elevated cyber resilience alongside kinetic deterrence.
Why it matters
European defence is entering an industrial policy era. For founders and primes, that means multi-year order visibility—and pressure to deliver faster, cheaper, better. The Hague just set the tone.
